Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
